Tuesday, 28 January 2025

Of Trump, Market Volatility, and Investor Behaviour

Back in 2007-08, I used to run a financial planning chat for one of the most popular websites in the country. Then the global financial crisis hit, and gloom set in. Investors (who were rank strangers) hurting from the market crash and bleeding portfolios, would often vent their anger at me.

A typical chat session could be amusing; investment-related queries would be interspersed with jibes and cuss words; the poor moderator had his work cut out. Bizarre as it sounds, some blamed me for the downturn, and perhaps cursing at me provided them succour.

Cut to 2025, a similar scenario is playing out. Dynamics have changed but not investor behaviour. Now, investors are split into two segments, with one trolling the other.

Back home, for a while now, economic growth had slowed down, market valuations were stretched, and earnings growth had disappointed. If Indian markets seemed ripe for a decline, developments in the US proved to be the proverbial straw that broke the camel’s back. In the US, president Trump began his second term in a bombastic manner with outrageous statements and disruptive policy decisions. Expectedly, equity markets have been engulfed in volatility leading to investor discomfort.

Here's where things get truly weird: social media is full of Indian investors venting at others, for ‘supporting’ Trump. Seemingly, the perception is that those in favour of Prime Minister Modi also support Trump because of their supposed camaraderie; conversely, those against Modi were rooting for Kamala Harris. At present, the anti-Modi/anti-Trump brigade is blaming the pro-Modi/pro-Trump section for market volatility.

That rationale is so far-fetched that it’s laughable. No Indian citizen voted for Trump, neither did they have a say in his policy decisions. Then again, there are always investors who get flustered when markets crash, and feel the need to act out.

Making whacky statements on social media is relatively harmless, but letting those emotions drive investment decisions can have serious consequences.

Investors must understand that risks are inherent to equity investing. This is especially noteworthy for those who have witnessed a nearly secular upturn, post Covid lows. Market volatility is par for the course, while investing in equities. Even robust investments will bleed when markets experience a sharp downturn. That’s the nature of the beast.

Investors who don’t have a stomach for volatility need to re-asses their equity investments. Those who are up for the ride, with all its highs and lows, must ‘learn to be still’ in volatile phases. Like it or not, emotions can be one's worst enemy while investing.

On a lighter note, if trolling others could solve one’s woes, then several active social media users would have been the happiest and wealthiest individuals on earth 😀