Lately, several business dailies have been carrying reports suggesting that the rates offered by schemes from the small savings segment are up for review. Apparently, banks that have been nudged by the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) to cut lending rates have demanded a rationalisation in small savings schemes; the rationale being that attractive rates on the same prevent banks from lowering deposit rates. This in turn impacts their ability to reduce lending rates. A recently-appointed RBI deputy governor echoed similar views.
What are small savings schemes?
Small savings schemes are colloquially referred to as post office schemes. Broadly speaking, schemes like Public Provident Fund (PPF), National Savings Certificate (NSC), Kisan Vikas Patra (KVP), Post Office Monthly Income Scheme (POMIS) and the Senior Citizens Savings Scheme (SCSS), among others form the small savings segment. These schemes are backed by a sovereign guarantee, making them risk-free investments. Also, certain schemes offer tax benefits under Section 80C of the Income Tax Act.
The rationalisation saga
Reports of a rationalisation in the small savings segment have cropped up on several occasions over the past few years. Several panels and committees mandated by the central bank have recommended a more 'rational' structure. However, barring some cosmetic changes, the small savings segment has remained largely unchanged.
Incidentally, provisional figures (sourced from RBI's website) reveal that in 2008-09, inflows in the small savings segment grew after falling successively in the two previous financial years. It's not difficult to understand the reason for this phenomenon. The aforementioned time-frame coincided with a sharp downturn in equity markets; consequently investors smarting from heavy losses in equity and mutual fund investments chose to opt for 'safe' avenues. And investors' preference for small savings schemes in a time of adversity only bears testimony to their popularity.
Will the FM bite the bullet?
Come July 3, 2009 when the Union Budget is presented, will the FM announce a reduction in rates offered by small savings schemes? Your guess is as good as mine. However doing so would certainly qualify as a bona fide unpopular step. For instance let's consider a segment of investors like senior citizens and retirees who are largely dependent on income generated from investments. For such investors, POMIS and SCSS are 'bread and butter' investment avenues, given their need for safety of capital and assured income. Any reduction in interest rates on these avenues is unlikely to go down well with investors. Also, let's not forget that speculation is rife, that we are in store for a popular budget.
The 'middle of the road' approach
A more likely scenario seems one wherein interest rates on certain schemes will be altered, instead of 'across-the-board' changes. For instance, the PPF which runs over a 15-Yr period offers assured returns, however the interest rate (8% pa at present) is subject to change. Post Office Time Deposits (POTDs) offer an investment proposition similar to the one offered by bank fixed deposits. A reduction in interest rates on such schemes is unlikely to raise many eyebrows.
While reducing interest rates would be the direct approach to rationalisation, there are other ways as well. These would entail reducing the attractiveness of the schemes. For example, Section 80C benefits can be removed from some of the schemes. The investment tenure/lock-in can be enhanced, thereby forcing investors to stay invested for longer. Clearly, there's more than one way to rationalise the small savings segment.
What investors must do
For investors who were planning to invest in small savings schemes, now wouldn't be a bad time to get invested. This is especially true for avenues like NSC or POTDs wherein the rate of interest is locked at the time investment. This will ensure that the investments are immune to any subsequent change.
Without doubt, the small savings segment looks set to undergo an overhaul; as regards the magnitude of the same, only time will tell. However, few would dispute the role that small savings schemes can play, in terms of being the risk-free debt component in the portfolio. As always, investors would do well to judiciously select schemes that suit them the best.
What are small savings schemes?
Small savings schemes are colloquially referred to as post office schemes. Broadly speaking, schemes like Public Provident Fund (PPF), National Savings Certificate (NSC), Kisan Vikas Patra (KVP), Post Office Monthly Income Scheme (POMIS) and the Senior Citizens Savings Scheme (SCSS), among others form the small savings segment. These schemes are backed by a sovereign guarantee, making them risk-free investments. Also, certain schemes offer tax benefits under Section 80C of the Income Tax Act.
The rationalisation saga
Reports of a rationalisation in the small savings segment have cropped up on several occasions over the past few years. Several panels and committees mandated by the central bank have recommended a more 'rational' structure. However, barring some cosmetic changes, the small savings segment has remained largely unchanged.
Incidentally, provisional figures (sourced from RBI's website) reveal that in 2008-09, inflows in the small savings segment grew after falling successively in the two previous financial years. It's not difficult to understand the reason for this phenomenon. The aforementioned time-frame coincided with a sharp downturn in equity markets; consequently investors smarting from heavy losses in equity and mutual fund investments chose to opt for 'safe' avenues. And investors' preference for small savings schemes in a time of adversity only bears testimony to their popularity.
Will the FM bite the bullet?
Come July 3, 2009 when the Union Budget is presented, will the FM announce a reduction in rates offered by small savings schemes? Your guess is as good as mine. However doing so would certainly qualify as a bona fide unpopular step. For instance let's consider a segment of investors like senior citizens and retirees who are largely dependent on income generated from investments. For such investors, POMIS and SCSS are 'bread and butter' investment avenues, given their need for safety of capital and assured income. Any reduction in interest rates on these avenues is unlikely to go down well with investors. Also, let's not forget that speculation is rife, that we are in store for a popular budget.
The 'middle of the road' approach
A more likely scenario seems one wherein interest rates on certain schemes will be altered, instead of 'across-the-board' changes. For instance, the PPF which runs over a 15-Yr period offers assured returns, however the interest rate (8% pa at present) is subject to change. Post Office Time Deposits (POTDs) offer an investment proposition similar to the one offered by bank fixed deposits. A reduction in interest rates on such schemes is unlikely to raise many eyebrows.
While reducing interest rates would be the direct approach to rationalisation, there are other ways as well. These would entail reducing the attractiveness of the schemes. For example, Section 80C benefits can be removed from some of the schemes. The investment tenure/lock-in can be enhanced, thereby forcing investors to stay invested for longer. Clearly, there's more than one way to rationalise the small savings segment.
What investors must do
For investors who were planning to invest in small savings schemes, now wouldn't be a bad time to get invested. This is especially true for avenues like NSC or POTDs wherein the rate of interest is locked at the time investment. This will ensure that the investments are immune to any subsequent change.
Without doubt, the small savings segment looks set to undergo an overhaul; as regards the magnitude of the same, only time will tell. However, few would dispute the role that small savings schemes can play, in terms of being the risk-free debt component in the portfolio. As always, investors would do well to judiciously select schemes that suit them the best.
2 comments:
I stand to be corrected here...but it is my understanding that funds from a few of these schemes do qualify as a "relatively cheaper" source of funding for the governemnt for its various projects...in light of this making these schemes less attractive would probably not be in the GoI's best interest!
And I firmly believe that this conflict of interest is not good...coz essentially how can the rates of borrowing ever be decided by the borrower (the GOI here through its agencies) single handedly...it should be a play of market forces...we do have our debt markets in place for this!
This may also help realize a more meaningful yield curve and the banks would have one lesser excuse!
hi obi,
maybe what you are saying is correct. however, on several occassions, state governments (the final consumers of these funds) have complained about the debt servicing burden and requested the central government to share a part of the burden. perhaps, what really hurts is that rates are fixed for the entire tenure (which can be fairly long), irrespective of the market rates.
you are dead on about the interest rates being unilaterally determined by the borrower being an unfair practice. but then let's not forget that small savings schemes arent exactly a conventional loan product. the "attractive for the common man" angle doesnt permit economics/market forces to operate freely. and that perhaps is the root of all problems.
in any case, given that small savings schemes have been left untouched, investors clearly have no reason to complain for now.
Post a Comment