Should Investors Fear Debt Funds Taking Credit Risk?

In October 2008, fixed maturity plans (FMPs) were in the news for all the wrong reasons. The financial crisis had set in, and equity markets had crashed.

Debt markets weren’t spared either: it was feared that papers issued by some real estate and broking firms, among others would default. Several debt funds, including FMPs were heavily invested in such instruments. Amidst tight liquidity, there was a run on fund companies, which in turn led to distress sales, and net asset values (NAVs) crashing. The latter fuelled more panic, and further distress sales.

Roughly nine years hence, I see a similar narrative playing out in the context of debt funds taking credit risk. Admittedly, the level of fear isn’t even remotely comparable as yet, but make no mistake, the narrative is similar.

Every time a credit rating agency downgrades the rating on an instrument, it makes headlines. Media lists which mutual fund portfolios hold the downgraded paper, alongside the allocation. Words such as default and loss are liberally tossed around, leading to fund investors hitting the panic button.

So should investors fear debt funds that take credit risk? Let’s find out.

The strategy of taking credit risk (or high-yield investing) entails investing in securities with a lower credit rating. Such instruments offer a higher coupon rate (versus securities with a higher credit rating). Furthermore, there is a possibility of the price appreciating if the credit rating is upgraded.

Does this investment strategy involve risk—indeed, it does. There is risk of the issuer defaulting on the payment of interest and/or the principal. Often such bonds can be illiquid which further accentuates their risk profile.

Given the risk, should investors shun funds using a credit risk-based strategy? No, and here’s why: The strategy of taking credit risk is as legitimate as any other. Several portfolio managers (both in India and globally) have plied it successfully and delivered pleasing long-term results. A strategy doesn’t become faulty simply because it entails risk.

Some experts argue that investors should only invest in debt funds deploying the duration strategy. That’s a weak argument because failing to read the direction in which interest rates will move, can also lead to losses. A case in point is the performance of debt funds in February 2017, when contrary to expectations, RBI kept policy rates unchanged.

Also, this is a case example of missing the woods for the trees—mutual fund investing is not without risk. Sure, some strategies are riskier than others, but risk is omnipresent.

Investors will do themselves a huge disservice by treating debt funds with a credit strategy like pariahs, and hitting the panic button in reaction to every news story. Instead, a prudent approach will be to acquire an unambiguous understanding of the risk involved, and then decide if they are comfortable taking on the same.

It's worth noting that when investment decisions are based on a combination of fear and ignorance, the results can be rather unpleasant.

Don't Treat Debt Funds Taking Credit Risk Like Pariahs

The JPMorgan Mutual Fund episode continues to reverberate in the investment community. The focus has seemingly shifted from the two affected funds to the investment strategy of taking credit risk (also referred to as high-yield investing). Media reports suggest that market regulator SEBI has sought details on investments in lower-rated securities from fund houses; also, it has been reported that SEBI has asked fund houses to not rely solely on credit ratings while investing in debt securities. Consensus suggests that fund houses have erred by taking credit risk, and as a result, investors’ interests have been compromised with. But this line of thinking is both myopic and fundamentally flawed.

To begin with, let’s understand what the strategy of taking credit risk (or high-yield investing) entails. The portfolio manager invests in securities with a lower credit rating. Such instruments offer a higher coupon rate (versus securities with a higher credit rating); furthermore, there is a possibility of the bond price appreciating if the credit rating is upgraded. Does this investment strategy entail risk – yes, it does. There is risk of the issuer defaulting on the payment of interest and/or the principal amount. Often such bonds can be illiquid which further accentuates their risk profile.

Given the risks, did fund houses and portfolio managers err by adopting a credit-based strategy? No, and here’s why: The strategy of taking credit risk is as legitimate as any other. Several managers have plied it successfully and delivered pleasing long-term results for investors. That the strategy entails risk doesn’t make it faulty. Some experts have claimed that investors are better off investing in debt funds that follow the duration strategy. That’s a weak argument because failing to accurately read the direction in which interest rates will move can also lead to losses.

The only reason funds with credit risk are in focus at the moment is the JPMorgan Mutual Fund episode. Oddly, over the years when these funds delivered attractive returns (and inherent risks didn’t surface) no concerns were raised. Therein lies the crux of the matter. Mutual fund investing is not without risk. Sure, some strategies are riskier than others, but risk is omnipresent. 

Treating debt funds with a credit strategy like pariahs is a knee-jerk reaction. A prudent approach will be for investors to acquire an unambiguous understanding of the risk involved, and then decide if they are comfortable taking on the same.

For instance, before investing in a debt fund wherein the credit risk strategy is employed, investors must ask themselves the following questions:

• Does their risk appetite allow them to invest in the fund?

To gauge one's risk-taking ability, it might help to visualize a scenario wherein testing conditions (read more downgrades and underperformance) prevail for a prolonged period. If investors believe that they are likely to push the panic button, then these funds aren’t for them. 

• What is the apt allocation for the fund in the portfolio? 

An investment advisor/financial planner can help decide if the fund should be utilised as a core holding or a supporting player in the portfolio. Clarity on this front will also help pragmatically evaluate performance, and decide on the fund's continuation in the portfolio.

• Is the portfolio manager adept at taking credit bets?

Not every manager has the skills to successfully ply the strategy. It is pertinent that the manager’s skills are in sync with the strategy. Seek managers who have conviction in the strategy over those who deploy it because it is the flavour of the season.

• Is the fund house trustworthy? 

Notwithstanding the kind of fund investors are seeking, the importance of being invested with the right fund house cannot be overstated. This aspect is only accentuated in times of adversity. Investors should select fund houses which have a track record of being investor friendly.