Sensex @ 30,000: What Experts Won’t Tell You

The S&P BSE Sensex has breached the 30,000 points mark. Celebratory cakes have been cut, and anchors of business channels have experienced bouts of ecstasy on live television. The print media has published statistics on markets' journey and performance. Clearly, these quarters are abundantly excited.

With investments delivering handsomely, investors have reason to cheer as well. However, not every investor shares the excitement palpable in the media. For some, markets touching record highs has led to anxious moments. These investors have been singed by markets in the past, especially after sharp surges.

For such investors, the all-important question is: Where are markets headed next? Will they continue to surge, or is another crash on the cards?

As is often the case, investors are seeking answers from experts who routinely feature in the media. However, even a cursory glance at quotes and op-eds reveals that experts have chosen to tread the middle path.

For instance, they strike an optimistic note by mentioning India’s strong fundamentals, conducive macroeconomic environment, expectations of robust flows. Simultaneously, they sound a note of caution by speaking about how earnings have failed to keep pace with markets, expensive valuations in certain market segments, and global factors such as the US Fed's stance.

It is evident that investors who are seeking an unambiguous answer from experts will be disappointed.

And, here’s why—No one knows where markets are headed in the near-term. While experts can make reasonable estimates of how markets will play out over the long-term, predicting near-term movements is anyone’s guess.

The trouble is that no expert will risk losing his ‘halo’ by publicly saying “I don’t know how markets will behave in the near-term”. Likewise, no print publication or channel is interested in quoting an expert who says so, or simply advises investors to focus on the long-term.

As a result, investors are subjected to convoluted and non-committal views from experts.

What investors must do

On their part, investors would do well to look inwards, instead of relying on experts.

Investing is a personalised activity. In other words, a ‘one size fits all’ approach doesn’t work. Hence, investment decisions must be made in line with one's risk appetite, temperament, and investment goals.

For instance, investors who are overly worried that an imminent crash might wipe out their gains, shouldn’t hesitate to book profits. In particular, investments that don’t agree with their profile; now is a good time to exit them at a gain.

Investors who are at ease with the vagaries of markets should continue to invest in line with their plans. For such investors, any downturn will present an attractive investment opportunity. 

Investors who find themselves between the extremes, can consider adopting a wait and watch approach.

The key lies in making a choice that works for you, and standing by it. That will lead to a far better investment experience, than relying on an expert who speaks half-truths.

How Investors Can Make The Most Of Market Volatility

Equity markets have been on a roller-coaster ride this week. After posting one of the largest single day falls (roughly 6%) on Monday, today markets staged a minor recovery of sorts. Not surprisingly, business channels and newspapers are dissecting every market development in great detail. Experts are busy predicting where markets are headed next. On their part, investors are tuned in with rapt attention.

While investors’ engagement with the external environment is understandable, this is indeed the right time to do some soul searching. The latter can prove to be the proverbial silver lining in this phase of market volatility. Surprised? Read on.

Equity investing is not without risk given the uncertainties involved; over shorter time frames, the risk is further accentuated given that even extraneous factors can significantly impact stock prices. As a result, while investing in equities/equity-linked products, one needs to be able to take on a certain degree of risk. This in turn necessitates an accurate assessment of one’s risk appetite. Sadly, that is easier said than done. When markets are rising, investors can erroneously start believing that it is easy to make money in the markets. This can lead to an inflated notion of one’s risk-taking ability. 

Harsh as it sounds, a volatile phase like the present one can provide a much-needed reality check. Now is the time to revisit your assessment of the risk you can take on. Ask yourself if you are yet as comfortable with equity investing as you were when markets scaled record highs earlier in the year. While an investment advisor can help with this exercise, you will have to play the most important part. If an honest introspection reveals that you have jumped the gun, don’t worry. All you need to do is rejig the portfolio so that it aptly reflects your risk appetite.

This is also a good time to evaluate if you’ve fallen prey to the ‘Keeping up with the Joneses’ blunder. At times, because a friend, relative or colleague claims to have done well with his equity investments, investors feel the urge to emulate his investments. The trouble with this approach is that it violates a basic tenet of investing. At its core, investing is a personalised activity. Investments have to be right for the investor in question. Hence, adopting the ‘one-size-fits-all’ approach can lead to unpleasant results. 

For instance, the friend (whose investments you have copied) may have a portfolio dominated by equities, since he has an investment horizon of a decade; conversely, you may have an investment horizon of just three years. In such a scenario, replicating his investment pattern wouldn’t be the best option. Yet again, it takes a bout of volatility to expose this inherently flawed investment practice.

Admittedly, market volatility can be a bitter pill to swallow. But the fact remains that while investing in equities, it comes with the territory. Rather than fretting over it, investors would do well to embrace volatility, and use it to their advantage by sharpening their investments.

Investment tips from 'The Godfather'

For film buffs and critics alike, The Godfather pretty much embodies what celluloid magic is all about. Even 37 years after its release, the movie continues to capture the collective imagination of audiences across the world. Its characters, lines and performances are a part of folklore. Debates and discussions on what makes the movie tick continue till date. The film's enduring appeal to generation after generation only reaffirms its status as a true classic.

But there's a lesser-known aspect to The Godfather. Apart from being a source of inspiration to aspiring actors and filmmakers, the film has a lot to offer to investors as well. Following are 3 investment tips from The Godfather:

1. "Where does it say that you can't kill a cop?"

When the Corleone family is under attack, Michael Corleone (Al Pacino) comes up with a seemingly outlandish plan to eliminate his family's enemies. And that includes killing a corrupt police officer. Despite being scoffed at by his associates, Michael rationalises his plan by suggesting that they feed the media with stories of the police officer's corrupt practices and his links with the mob, and thereby defame him. Essentially, Michael shows the willingness to think out-of-the-box and take risk, without being irrational.

Likewise, the willingness to be unconventional and take on risk is vital for successful investing. Often, investors are guilty of sticking to certain avenues simply because they have always done so. For example, it is not uncommon to find investors who refuse to venture beyond bank fixed deposits and small savings schemes; the only explanation for their choice being, we have always invested in these avenues. By shutting the door on other options, investors might deprive themselves of the opportunity to meet their investment objectives. Of course, this should not be read as a recommendation to throw caution to the winds and invest in every untested investment avenue on offer.

All investors need to do is, be open to the idea of investing in avenues that offer a suitable investment proposition and be willing to take on acceptable levels of risk. For instance, a 25-Yr old investor who is saving for his retirement 35 years hence, can't hold a portfolio comprised of only fixed deposits and bonds; despite the higher risk, equities and mutual funds must find place therein. Remember, risk isn't bad; investing without being aware of it or failing to properly assess it, is what gives rise to thorny situations.

2. "It's not personal. It's strictly business."

This recurring line from the film has been used to great effect on each occasion. Every character who quotes this legendary line tries to impress on others that a given act or plan of action should be seen as a business decision. In other words, it has nothing to do with his personal feelings. Hence, the need to view the act in a dispassionate manner. The 'not personal' rationale holds true for investments as well.

At times, investors have a tendency to get 'attached' to their investments. This is especially true of market-linked avenues like stocks and mutual funds that have had a successful run. The trouble starts when the avenue is no longer equipped to perform as it has in the past. Similarly, there can be a situation wherein an investor gets invested in an avenue that fails to deliver. In both the situations, investors might be tempted to hold on to the investment; while in the former, it's the 'attachment' at work, in the latter, it's to get even.

Such an approach to investing is certainly unwarranted. An investment is simply a means to achieve a goal i.e. the investment objective. If a thorough evaluation suggests that the investment is no longer equipped to play the part that it was supposed to, investors must salvage the situation by getting rid of the same at an opportune price and time.

3. "Tom Hagen is no longer consiglieri."

When Michael decides to expand the family's operations, he decides to make certain changes. The significant one being that his brother/long-time associate, Tom Hagen (Robert Duvall) is sacked from the consiglieri's (advisor) post. His explanation for this rather drastic move is quite simple - Tom is not a not a wartime consiglieri and that things could get rough. Simply put, Michael prefers someone adept at strong-arm tactics over his brother, since the situation demands it.

An investor should routinely evaluate his relationship with the investment advisor/financial planner. The onus to ensure that investments are made and managed in the best interests of the investor, lies with the advisor. In effect, the investment advisor's integrity and competence are consistently tested.

Let's consider the emerging scenario in the mutual fund industry. With entry loads being scrapped, investors will be required to individually compensate advisors for services rendered. There can be a situation wherein an investor believes that his advisor isn't able to justify the fees demanded or perhaps his service standards aren't up to the mark. Should such a situation arise, investors shouldn't hesitate to terminate their existing relationship. Investing is serious business and there should be no room for incompetence or a slack attitude on the advisor's part.

Finally, be wary when someone "makes you an offer, you can't refuse". In The Godfather, this phrase refers to a veiled threat; refusal leads to dire consequences. In the world of investments, one can draw a parallel to investment propositions that claim to offer a win-win proposition. For instance, an investment that purports to expose investors to low risk, yet promises to deliver high returns. Remember, if an investment proposition sounds too good to be true, there's more than a fair chance that it is.

HDFC Top 200: An underrated achiever

Did you know that even investments can be exciting? Typically, asset classes or investment avenues that have hit a purple patch make the grade as exciting ones. Especially, the ones that have gone from obscurity to prominence in a short time span. They are written about in the media and instantly recommended by investment advisors. For instance, a fund that has delivered a trail-blazing performance and is perched at the top of the rankings. Even providers of financial services enjoy their fifteen minutes of fame; say a fund house that holds the largest asset size in the industry. Don't get me wrong. There is nothing wrong with an asset class, an investment avenue or a financial service provider being lauded and discussed, because it has delivered. In fact, it's only to be expected.

The trouble starts when one reads too much into the 'exciting' bit and makes investment decisions based solely on the same. Also, since most of the fanfare can be attributed to a recent showing, it is difficult to distinguish a 'flash in the pan' from a 'sustainable' performance. And for serious investors, the latter is certainly a more important evaluation parameter.

Then there are funds which don't qualify as exciting ones. Make no mistake, that's not the same as being non-performers. On the contrary, these can be funds that go about playing their part to perfection, but in an understated manner. They often deliver with enviable levels of consistency. Their performance over longer time periods and across parameters can be impressive. Despite this, there is never a frenzy surrounding them. It is not uncommon for such funds to be labelled as 'boring'.

Sadly, most investors fail to realise that in the context of investing, boring can be good. This is because, boring translates into predictability. And predictability means fewer unpleasant surprises. If you are building an investment portfolio to achieve certain objectives, boring funds of the aforementioned variety should account for a lion's share of the portfolio. The fact that a fund isn't in the limelight or isn't perceived as exciting is no reflection on its prowess. A competent performer stays the same irrespective of the attention it garners. HDFC Top 200 Fund (HT2F) is one fund that falls in the category of underrated achievers.

Originally an offering from Zurich India Mutual Fund, the fund became a part of HDFC Mutual Fund subsequent to the former's takeover in 2003. A diversified equity fund, HT2F's investment proposition is quite simple. It largely invests in stocks of companies featuring in the BSE 200 index. An interesting aspect of the fund is that it combines the active and passive styles of investing. It holds around 60% of its portfolio in line with the BSE 200 index. The fund has also benefited from the presence of its fund manager, Prashant Jain (Executive Director & CIO-HDFC Mutual Fund). Incidentally, Prashant Jain was earlier associated with Zurich India Mutual Fund. The fund's long-standing association with the fund manager has served it well.

Now for the performance. For a fund that has been in existence for well over a decade (inception in 1996), HT2F's track record is impressive to say the least. As on July 14, 2009, over the 3-Yr and 5-Yr periods, it had delivered 17.5% CAGR and 31.2% CAGR respectively; the corresponding figures for BSE 200 were 9.9% CAGR and 21.8% CAGR. Over the last 12 months, the fund posted a growth of 22.3% vis-à-vis just 3.1% for its benchmark. HT2F's NAV rose by 21.6% CAGR over a 10-Yr period as compared to 13.8% for BSE 200. And that is no mean achievement!

Any analyst worth his salt will agree that a fund's mettle is truly tested during a downturn. In recent times, after peaking in January 2008, domestic stock markets went into a downward spiral that lasted until March 2009. Over this (approximately 14-Mth) period, between it highest and lowest points, the BSE 200 shed 64.9% on an absolute basis; HT2F scored over its benchmark by losing 54.8%. In effect, the fund has fared better than its benchmark in both the upturn and downturn. HT2F is no laggard when it comes to competing with peers. Its showing vis-à-vis comparable peers (funds that predominantly invest in the large cap segment) is equally noteworthy.

Despite this, there is no perceptible buzz around the fund. No one is raving about its performance. This is hard to explain. For some obscure reason, HT2F lacks the 'X' (read exciting) factor that is much needed to draw attention.

What investors must do
For one, it would help if you don't let the hype or 'lack of it' affect your investment decisions. Always remember, investing need not be exciting; conversely, as mentioned earlier, boring can be good. You must check with your investment advisor/financial planner if a competent and proven, yet seemingly humdrum fund fits in your scheme of things. And if it does, by all means get invested.

(NAV data sourced from www.hdfcfund.com; data for BSE 200 sourced from www.bseindia.com)